Ukraine and Russia 5 years from now
By Cody Andrus
The war between Ukraine and Russia began three years ago on February 24, 2022. The conflict is also known as the "Russo-Ukrainian War.” This term typically encompasses the time since 2014 with Crimea and Donbas. The conflict presents a very complicated and troubling reality. What began as a swift invasion by Russia has evolved into a grinding war of attrition, with significant human cost and vast geopolitical implications. Examining the facts, and listening to the insights of military strategists, helps us understand the current situation and possible paths ahead.
One hard fact is the immense human toll. Tens of thousands of lives have been lost on both sides, including countless civilians. Ukraine has seen vast swathes of its territory devastated, with cities reduced to rubble and critical infrastructure targeted. Russia, despite initial expectations of a quick victory, has also suffered heavy casualties and significant material losses. The economic impact has been global, with disruptions to energy markets and supply chains. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, becoming refugees in neighboring countries or internally displaced within their own borders. This is a humanitarian crisis on an unprecedented scale in Europe since World War II.
When considering Russia’s chances of winning, military strategists consider several factors. Russia holds a clear advantage in terms of population size, military resources, and a more developed industrial base capable of sustaining long-term conflict. But Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience, fueled by strong national unity along with substantial military aid from the U.S. and its allies. Analysts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace note that Russia's initial military objectives, such as overthrowing the Ukrainian government and swiftly occupying key cities, simply failed. The war is now a test of endurance, both sides seeking to deplete the other's resources and will to fight. Most strategists suggest that a complete military victory for either side, in the traditional sense, is increasingly unlikely.
What could this look like 5 years from now? The war will likely evolve into a prolonged, entrenched conflict with perhaps a stalemate along certain front lines but with sporadic fighting and artillery duels. The international community will remain divided. Western nations will support Ukraine. Russia will try to solidify its territorial gains. If Trump remains skeptical regarding U.S. involvement and aid, it will create uncertainty into the Western alliance's unified front and will embolden Russia. President Trump should thoroughly and wholeheartedly understand that providing Ukraine with Western intelligence is essential to securing victory.
AP News. The Human Cost of the War in Ukraine. Reuters. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Global Effort. The Wall Street Journal. Russia's Economic Resilience Under Sanctions. The New York Times. Europe's Security Rethink After Ukraine Invasion. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Analyzing Russia's Military Objectives in Ukraine. Council on Foreign Relations. Future Scenarios for the Ukraine War.
