Trump has the edge in battleground states
Looking solely at polling data, it’s hard to deny that Donald Trump has a strategic advantage, especially in key battleground states. Data suggests that his support in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan could give him a more straightforward path to victory. In these battleground states, Trump holds small but consistent leads. These states were pivotal in deciding the 2016 and 2020 elections, and once again, their demographic makeup — predominantly working-class voters and growing Latino populations in places like Arizona — could tilt the scales in Trump’s favor.
In Pennsylvania, blue-collar workers in rural areas have shown solid support for Trump. His appeal to these voters has largely been tied to economic promises to revitalize industries like coal and steel. Similarly, in Arizona, despite its growing Latino population, which tends to lean Democratic, Trump’s numbers are buoyed by his appeal to suburban and older voters, who remain skeptical of progressive immigration policies. These dynamics suggest a coalition that may be more resilient than polls in non-battleground states might suggest.
The Brookings Institution, FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times, RealClearPolitics, Pew Research Center.
