Who will our president be?
Anyone who claims to know who will win the presidential election doesn't understand the fluid nature of American politics. Time and again, unforeseen events dramatically shift the political landscape, leaving even the most experienced analysts blindsided. From October surprises, like James Comey's announcement about Hillary Clinton's emails in 2016, to sudden economic downturns or crises like the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, external factors often play a decisive role in determining the eventual winner.
American elections also tend to come down to an extremely narrow margin because the electorate is so polarized. Over the past few decades, the two-party system has evolved into what political scientist Morris Fiorina describes as "a closely divided but deeply polarized electorate." This division keeps the national vote split roughly 50/50 in many election cycles. In 2020, Joe Biden won with 51.3% of the popular vote, while Donald Trump garnered 46.9%, a difference of just a few percentage points.
One of the reasons this divide remains so consistent is the distribution of party loyalty across demographics and geography. Regions like the Midwest or states such as Florida and Ohio often swing between parties, reflecting the narrow balance between Republican and Democratic voters. According to historian Alan Abramowitz, the balance is delicate, as both parties have constructed coalitions that roughly cancel each other out. As a result, even small shifts in voter turnout, policy positions, or unexpected news events can change the tide of an election.
Additionally, with voter participation fluctuating and turnout often hovering between 50% to 60%, predicting outcomes becomes even more difficult. American elections, especially at the national level, are an exercise in uncertainty, where almost anything can happen. When the electorate is so deeply split, even the smallest event can affect the outcome.
Political Science Quarterly, Brookings Institution, American Political Science Review, The New York Times, The Washington Post.
